Trump’s Russia Sanctions Softening, Ukraine’s War Still Burning
Curious how Washington keeps circling back to the same uneasy dance with Moscow, this whole episode feels like one of those moments where you blink and suddenly the geopolitical logic has flipped without any corresponding shift on the ground. The October sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil were the only truly consequential economic pressure the Trump administration ever put on Russia to push it toward meaningful negotiation over Ukraine. Those measures hit revenue streams, strategic capabilities, and Kremlin-aligned elites in ways Moscow genuinely dislikes. Then, almost out of nowhere, Treasury starts loosening parts of those restrictions. No battlefield change, no concession from the Kremlin, and certainly no shift in the Kremlin’s fundamental war aims. The only thing that changed was the political choreography in the background.
Two days after the Witkoff–Kushner meeting with Putin, Treasury moves to partially suspend the sanctions. It lands with that uncomfortable thud you get when cause and effect hover suspiciously close. Russia did not modify its posture. It didn’t scale back attacks, adjust strategic objectives, or show a glimmer of compromise. If anything, Moscow has doubled down, betting the West will fracture or lose focus. Against that backdrop, a sanctions softening makes no strategic sense unless there is some undeclared quid pro quo or domestic political calculation at play. And frankly, the pattern speaks for itself: private channels open, sanctions ease, and the administration offers no coherent explanation of what the US gained in return. Probably because the answer, if stated plainly, would look like a political favor rather than a strategic bargain.
What makes it even more jarring is how sanctions — especially targeted energy sanctions — are one of the few levers Washington has left that Moscow does not shrug off. Pulling back on them without extracting anything leaves both Ukraine and US credibility worse off. It signals to the Kremlin that persistence pays, that pressure is negotiable, and that elite-to-elite backdoor relationships can override formal policy. Hard to imagine a more damaging message in the middle of a war Russia is still prosecuting with total ruthlessness.