Curious how Washington keeps circling back to the same uneasy dance with Moscow, this whole episode feels like one of those moments where you blink and suddenly the geopolitical logic has flipped without any corresponding shift on the ground. The October sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil were the only truly consequential economic pressure the Trump administration ever put on Russia to push it toward meaningful negotiation over Ukraine. Those measures hit revenue streams, strategic capabilities, and Kremlin-aligned elites in ways Moscow genuinely dislikes.