Washington didn’t engineer the Saudi-UAE split. It just watched it happen. 🇺🇸🇸🇦🇦🇪Behind the scenes: The Trump administration was slow to grasp how serious the rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia had become — and chose not to get involved as it deepened, U.S. and regional sources said 🇺🇸🇸🇦🇦🇪Early on in the crisis, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told… https://t.co/StlZA4mgi7 — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 2, 2026 Axios reporting confirms what the OPEC exit made undeniable: the Trump administration miscalculated both the depth of the Saudi-UAE rupture and the cost of non-intervention.

There is a particular kind of strategic failure that is almost admirable in its consistency. Iran, in the weeks since February 28, has managed to accomplish what years of American diplomacy could not: convincing a fractured, mutually suspicious Middle East that it has a common enemy. It has done so not through miscalculation at the margins, but through a sustained, multi-front campaign that has struck neutrals, allies, and American assets with equal indifference.