Strip away the flattery and the F-35 headlines from this week’s Ankara summit, and a narrower, more concrete objective sits underneath everything Trump is offering Erdogan: unblocking the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. The jet talk is the part that makes headlines. The pipeline is the part that actually protects Trump from a repeat of the Hormuz shock that nearly cost him the midterms. The blockade Trump cannot afford to relive Iran’s closure of the Strait at the outset of the February war sent oil prices spiking more than 70 percent, and the fear of that blockade dragging into November is what pushed Trump toward a ceasefire in the first place.

Erdogan threatens to invade Israel. He’s spelling it out for you yet @Israel is still doing it wrong. Turkey openly sponsors your enemies—Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, al Qaeda, and Grey Wolves, brags about it and Israel just takes it. PM @netanyahu, cut ties with Turkey,… pic.twitter.com/WVn93Z2rcX — Diliman Abdulkader (@D_abdulkader) July 29, 2024