Reducing Risks in Hypersonic Weapons Development: GAO Urges DOD to Adopt Leading Practices
The GAO report titled “HYPERSONIC WEAPONS: DOD Could Reduce Cost and Schedule Risks by Following Leading Practices,” published in July 2024, examines the Department of Defense’s (DOD) efforts in developing offensive hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic weapons, which can travel at least five times the speed of sound and have unpredictable flight paths, are seen as crucial for the U.S. to strike heavily defended targets from a distance. The report identifies several key issues and recommendations for the DOD.
Firstly, the report highlights that while DOD is prioritizing rapid development for these weapons, many of the six identified efforts are not fully incorporating leading practices for product development. For instance, only two of the six efforts are actively soliciting user feedback to determine essential capabilities for the minimum viable product, a practice that is critical for effective product development. Additionally, not all efforts are utilizing advanced digital engineering tools, such as digital twins, which can streamline the design process and reduce costs.
The report also discusses the challenges in estimating the costs of hypersonic weapons due to DOD’s limited experience in this field. For example, the cost estimate for the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) effort, while among the more mature estimates, still heavily relies on expert opinions, which can be prone to bias. Improving methodologies and incorporating actual costs more effectively could provide more accurate estimates.
Furthermore, the DOD’s approach to enterprise risk management for hypersonic weapons is found to be incomplete. While DOD has identified and assessed many risks, it is not fully reporting progress and risks at an enterprise level to Congress, which could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the overall efforts and promote transparency.
The GAO report makes ten recommendations to the DOD, including increasing user feedback incorporation, expanding the use of digital engineering tools, improving cost estimation practices, and enhancing enterprise-level reporting activities. DOD has concurred with these recommendations, recognizing the need for better practices to mitigate cost and schedule risks in developing hypersonic weapons.